Higher education needs to equip students not only with disciplinary knowledge, but also with the skills they’ll need in their future workplaces. One such skill which is gaining increased recognition is the ability to effectively manage uncertainty, commonly referred to in the educational literature as uncertainty tolerance.

Ironically, the one thing we can be certain of is that we will encounter uncertainty throughout our lives. This might stem from gaps in knowledge or research evidence, unpredictable outcomes, ambiguous information, or the complexity created by multiple interacting factors. We know from studies across different industries that there are negative impacts related to ineffective management of uncertainty, such as increased risk of burnout, as well as greater reliance on resources, such as diagnostic testing in healthcare and supervisory support in professional settings.

While early studies on uncertainty tolerance suggested it was a fixed or innate trait, recent research shows it is shaped by factors, such as experience and education. This positions tertiary educators to play a powerful role in preparing students for the uncertainty they will inevitably face in their future careers. Importantly, developing learners’ uncertainty tolerance doesn’t have to come at the expense of building core disciplinary knowledge. Rather, with small, deliberate shifts in teaching approaches, educators can foster both.

The uncertainty tolerance conceptual model can help plan teaching activities

To understand how educators how to teach in a way that fosters uncertainty tolerance, it’s helpful to consider the uncertainty tolerance conceptual model.

This model includes a stimulus, or the reasons uncertainty is perceived, moderators, or the factors within in an individual or in their environment that influence one’s perceptions of and responses to uncertainty. It also includes the responses that encompass one’s cognitions, emotions and behaviours.

Evidence from psychological studies support that humans may be evolutionary wired to respond to uncertainty with a stress response. However, we may have greater influence over our cognitive and behavioural responses. For instance, evidence from longitudinal studies has shown how medical students were able to shift from responses such as denial, avoidance and inaction, to accepting the place of uncertainty in healthcare. This allowed the students to meaningfully engage with learning about uncertainty within the healthcare context. Critically, these studies also identified the key attributes of educators that supported this development - this is where consideration of uncertainty stimuli and moderators can help plan teaching activities.

Stimulators and moderators of uncertainty

Educators can purposefully stimulate uncertainties for students, whether that be in classroom settings, simulations or work integrated learning, so that students can practice managing uncertainty. This could include problem or case-based learning approaches, where learners receive partial or conflicting information, and where there may be multiple relevant solutions based on the available information. Another approach could include introducing diverse perspectives on a topic which the students are learning about, such as researcher, industry and consumer or community voices.

Knowledge of moderators of uncertainty tolerance can then help educators identify ways in which they can support students to begin managing uncertainty, or further challenge them as they gain skills. These moderators may be divided into factors related to learner, educator and broader educational system.

Learner sourced moderators might include learners’ subject knowledge, worldview and learning goals. For instance, learners who have limited subject knowledge, perceive the world in objective terms, and are motivated by achievement are generally less tolerant of uncertainty, and may respond to uncertainty by trying to find the ‘correct’ answer or piece of information that supports a singular solution. These learners may need greater support when uncertainty is introduced by educators compared to learners who have some awareness of where uncertainties may arise in a subject, and are motivated by a sense of purpose or personal interests.

Educator sourced moderators include how educators teach and facilitate learning, as well as how they design the curriculum. One of the key ways an educator can foster uncertainty tolerance is to role model effective management of uncertainty. This can be achieved acknowledging uncertainty, normalising the discomfort associated with uncertainty, and describing approaches to move forward with a problem despite uncertainty. Such approaches can help students learn that uncertainty is experienced even by experts in a subject, and that they will be able to learn to manage it.

How can I get started with uncertainty tolerance teaching practices?

While there are a number ways educators can plan teaching activities and curricula to foster uncertainty tolerance, critical reflection on uncertainty at present has the greatest evidence base. Part of the reason why critical reflection seems to work is that it helps students move beyond the often negative emotions felt during an uncertain experience, and instead evaluate what they can learn from the experience and apply to future experiences of uncertainty. It can be tricky for students to identify the different ways they could have approached an uncertain problem, or ways they can improve, so feedback for learning that acknowledges uncertainty should be important adjunct to critical reflection on uncertainty.

Purposefully stimulating uncertainty in teaching activities, role modelling uncertainty tolerance and critical reflection on uncertainty are just some of the ways educators can help foster uncertainty tolerance.  To help educators move forward with uncertainty tolerance teaching practices, I’ve developed open-access resources, such as this tips paper [https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0142159X.2024.2307500] and handbook [https://oercollective.caul.edu.au/uncertainty-in-health-professions/], including teaching exemplars and resources to support the development of uncertainty tolerance teaching activities. While these resources were initially developed for health professions educations, the ubiquity of uncertainty across disciplines and industries means that the core principles included, such as approaches to critical reflection, and largely often across disciplines.

We know that uncertainty tolerance teaching practices are most effective when supported by multiple educators across a programme of learning. While getting started can feel like a significant source of uncertainty for educators, sharing the experience through a community of practice can make it more manageable. So why not begin the journey with your colleagues and venture into uncertainty tolerance teaching practices together?

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